Us Recession 2024 Probability Analysis. This model uses the slope of the yield curve, or “term spread,” to calculate the probability of a recession in the united states twelve months ahead. Morgan estimate a 2024 recession probability of about 1 in 3 as of august 15 based primarily on labor market risks as well as some softness in.

Recession in the coming year has declined, as recent economic data signal that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a. The probability of recession peaked at nearly 81% on 25 july 2023, making the period from july 2023 through july 2024 the most likely period in which the national.